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montres ed hardy 09
= ,Sunday .In June 3rd the see after 18967, market speculation ,stock prices tend in small ,the stock market in June 12th 19161.97 ,the turnover was relatively low in June 3rd ,technical performance and began weakening .
The rebound in November last year that strong ,my old Cao acknowledged ,the dollar from June begins to stop drop pick up ,prices fall, worrying resource price rise near the end .In May China raw material quantity is less than in April ( compared with the same period last year is still rising) .
It seems China to buy raw materials had gone off the boil ,you should be in the hands of resource shares for only bit eclipse ,this time the stock market performance was estimated in ,you can use the stop more than make strategy ,and gradually the stop bit higher ,at present only bit eclipse set at 17250 points ( i.
e. a 19161 low 10%) can fly kites (i.e., with profits to run ) .Stock market performance proved once again that no prophet and any moment should be disciplined, all according to the formulation strategies .
Obama save the economy failed to act in January this year, when Obama came to power ,the United States economy is facing a number of serious crashes ,he approved the economic rescue plan ,the amount of more than $1 .
The $1 stimulus plan, U.S. stocks have until March 6th to go up again; but unemployment is still rising from 7.1% in January to 9.4% ,the previous week ,estimated to 2010 10.3% .The $1 ,$300000000000 was used to create employment ,seem to function ;as for each new offer $5000 tax subsidy is not effective ( see General Motors still going bankrupt ) ;10% increase in housing credit guarantee ,efficacy is limited .
In addition to a rising stock market ,the United States of America real economy has not improved ,such as the May retail sales figures only 0.5% litre .Go up century thirty time the fed the same interest, but the money supply is still down ;in 2007 September the Fed rate cuts have repeatedly found to be invalid .
Last October ,is the first English ,then China ,finally most of the country financial system to inject cash directly ,only to the assets appreciation ,such as the oil price increase from $32 to $73 ,the price rose 80% and the Hang Seng Index rose 73% ,this situation can be maintained how long ?In show level or if you give me the old Cao know ,what investment can hold six months still make you feel at ease ?This year or the year ,net profit of enterprise will be how to ?I Cao unintentional lobby you bearish, but want to know what they are doing ?P/E ,now a level to already entered high area boutique paul smith,is worth the adventure or to leave a little to be made ?The first quarter of this year American wealth by $1.
3 ( the fourth quarter of last year to reduce 4.9 trillion) ,is the seven consecutive quarter fell .An estimated second season recovered somewhat ,but Americans increasingly poor is a big trend, but the speed issue ( such as a D or a D slow ) .
The second quarter of 2007 Americans have $13.8 fortune will be the peak .Last week the ten year bond interest rates rose to 4 per cent above ,also rose to 1.41 per cent for the biennium .
On behalf of the past five months ten year bond interest rates of 2 per cent ,situation is very worrying .2008 / 09 the annual deficit will reach 12% GDP ,the United States of America in face of monetary policy and fiscal expenditure of contradiction between; such as large amounts of debt payment deficit ,March will offset the quantitative easing monetary policy benefits ,decree of March 9th began to rise in the stock market in the end .
As of ten older debt interest rate long-term maintained at 4 per cent above (i.e., relatively the beginning of the year up 100%) ,fear of American commercial buildings bear huge pressure .
Many in California commercial building vacancy rate has reached 15% ,a rise in interest rates under pressure, that the United States commercial property prices into the big adjustment period .
In 1978 the Chinese government to implement the policy of reform and opening up ;and computer science and technology popularization and the communication cost to drop ,cause further economic globalization ;China cost and the cheap oil ;coming from all over the world cheap resources ,caused the United States from 1982 to 2007 the stock market rise period .
But by last year ,no matter Chinese laborers ,Russia oil and from around the world are no longer cheap resources ,make global economy enters decline tide .Last year recession should not in the United States recession ,deficit of up to GDP 13% environment, where normal recession? In the recession of the big bounce ,and often amazing .
Good hard to believe there is a dollar rally deflation is it right? ?Germany has to PIGS ( Portugal ,Ireland ,Greece and Spain ) pressure ,asking them to keep the euro set code !It seems the euro exchange rate increases .
As the dollar rebound ,global investment situation of change quickly ,but Benach was on thirty American economic expertise ,he evaded nor odd or method .Most investors in the inflation period to grow, especially in 1971 the U.
S. dollar from the gold standard after the thirty-six years ;they believe that deflation has appeared ,like the 1970 I Cao in Ming Pao newspaper wrote that that Hong Kong people believe that inflation is coming so difficult .
This year, many people still predict malignant inflation back (hyperinflation ) ,and do not believe that the base material bucket poor in the last year ,even the Financial Times also ready for inflation words ( for the inflation s ready) ,forget the great wealth in early last year has disappeared ;forget the American banks began to repair balance sheet ;the Americans began to reduce consumption and increase savings ,the savings rate has risen to 5.
7% last week to fourteen year high .At present the United States company cost 70% of salary ,the rising unemployment rate ,salary and how big ?The United States is the future inflation rate ( CPI ) increases are limited ,the sources of energy and raw material prices although since January this year, pick up, but for the United States CPI influence on China Limited ,may be a D .
In June 3rd the see after 18967, the stock market into play table tennis period .Due to the weekly from five to ten data, the stock market rising and falling trend .According to a Reuters survey of analysts on the S & P Five hundred ,second quarter net profit estimation to negative 35.
7% (last week of minus 36.1% ) ,is the main cause of index excluding GM and Citibank third quarter net profit is negative ;estimate 21.9% ( April 1st 22.4% estimate is negative ) montres ed hardy,is a D improvement .
In 1929 November the Dow also had increased from 198.07 to 294.07 April 1930 ,in a short span of thirteen weeks up to 48.2% .The Dow in March 6th this year to June 11th thirteen weeks also rise ,rise 37.
2%, there are similar ?As for the Hang Seng Index ,from March 9th 11344 up to June 12th 19161, thirteen weeks up to 68.9% .Shortly after the 1930 May would like stocks that has dropped to 1932? Nikkei stock average since the peak in 1990 ,in the past twenty years ten big bounce table .
The smallest increases 30.3% ,62.9% rise time maximum increases ;at least twenty-two trading days ,the longest in more than seven hundred and nine trading days ( two years ) ,more than four times greater than 50% rebound is ;each investor is that Japan boom again ,but still down charge field .
In 2007 November, U.S. stocks will be similar chemises burberry pas cher? Since 2007 November, the United States financial markets into systolic .After the credit dilate period from 1981 to 2007 ,the beginning of last year credit systole ;either stock or property appears in case ,as in 1990, Japan when decline too slow or government intervention ,the stock market appeared a technical rebound ,rebound again fall after completion .
History of words gives us knowledge ,experienced in 2007 November to October last year drop City ,appeared six months or longer rebound period is not surprising .Buy and Hold over market usually has three kinds of capital :a capital ,eye-catching trend following ;two ,capital market and foolish ;three ,large amounts of money to swim .
Silly money not only the latest to attend the party, but is in last season ;success never ends ,but failed ,because when an investment is successful, another investment and waiting for you to challenge ;conversely ,after the failure of an investment ,you have no cost to play another time .
This is why social success ,less failure reason .Robert Shiller, the United States of America prices from 2006 the highest price has dropped 32%, the future is still bearish .The price of gasoline in forty-one days to rise 61% to $2.
62 a gallon ,consumers in the United States have begun to resist this price .2007 November to October last year fell ,crushing the Buy and Hold belief .Investors understand that ,only in the high economic growth period ,for example 1967 to 1997 the Hong Kong Housing ,can do Buy and Hold ;from the 1997 third quarter started to invest in the Hong Kong Housing has become Buy and Hope .
As for the investment of HSBC (005 ) in 2007 October ,there are still many people superstitious HSBC is a long-term Buy and Hold .In March 9th this year, when HSBC fell to 30 yuan ,investors are angry !They can from 1981 to 2007 in the United States of America stocks rise reason is because interest rates fall ,economic globalization and financial leverage .
The three big trends have been changing ,having only Bo bear market rally .Because of the financial industry has already entered the deleveraging ;economy has been moving toward anti globalization .
Since December last year, bond market is down 19.65% ,the largest decline since 1977 ,worry about bonds also bear ;when bond markets initially dropped 20% ,the stock market usually rises ;once the fall of more than 20%, they can outlast the stock market .
In the bull market in you make money ;you make a fortune in a bear market !You have read last November to January of this year rally this year ,as well as 3 day 9 to rebound in June 12th ,as long as the Keep your powder dry ,are not afraid of no chance !History of words to us ,never be in smooth water tide .
2008/09 ( September ) the United States deficit is estimated to reach $1.85 ,close to the United States GDP 10% .In the future five years ,things don ,the future American GDP each year 5% to 6% will be used to pay the interest ,unless the Americans changing consumption habits ,back to the sixty ,seventy consumption level .
It can be triggered by global economic return failure (the so-called financial tsunami wave second ) .The Chinese government has recently changed with short debt dollar interest rates ,large tilt ( i.
e abercrombie fitch coats. long debt interest rate higher than many short interest rate bonds ) ,suspect in November last year to June this year the stock market rise in eight months is it right? The typhoon eye ( in the United States this year from March to June, only four months ) .
From ARM Reset situation (adjustable rate mortgage debt, commonly known as ARM) ,a large amount of ARM maturity is 2007 year, second large due date is 2010 May, when large amounts of ARM interest rate to be adjusted .
In March of this year by government intervention brought to a short ,can cure the lending market old trouble ?In June VIX index is the lowest since May last year ,representing the optimistic sentiment of investors and then rising, stock market has entered the overbought zone ,the Dow has to return to the 200 antenna on top of ( in a bear market, when the Dow back to the 200 antenna is on the short sell signal ) .
The 2001 incident after the government mad by interest rate made by the United States of America building bubble ,in 2006 2007 August CDO blasting ,triggered the crisis ;to 2007 September government again mad by interest rate to make the bond market bubble .
January this year ,money is leaving the bond market ,prices lacoste polo shirts,oil prices are rising and prices .Whitney Tilson ( TS Partners CEO) estimates ,the global banking in the future will still for the allowance for doubtful debts of $1.
3 ,which at present each big bank fails to finish the clean up bad debts .The United States government the next year fiscal years tax of 1.9 billions of dollars ,spending $3.6 ,still need a large number of bonds to meet expenses .
Markets often on prospects for estimation ,unfortunately most of prior estimates in turned out to be wrong ,because one can only do after Kong ming .At present, the United States is in debt to GDP 375% ,quickly into the economic activities are not sufficient to cover the debt interest income .
This year the United States government must borrow $36000000000 per month to meet expenses .Money is a first after the bitter sweet game ,at present the United States American banks have no lending ( for bank capital has shrunk dramatically ,not further increase loans ) .
Future American economy in the absence of credit expansion support, where the bull ?!Bloody L shaped economy from 1980 to 1982 American economy had been in ,Hongkong from 1981 to 1984 and the W shaped recession .
W shaped depression can be divided into lazy W and dynamic W .The United States is the lazy W ,due in 1982 August 1980 April stock market low is lower ;instead, the Hongkong that is full of vitality W shape ,due in 1984 July ,1982 December the low low low .
On 1982, the United States economy although recovery ,but still be lazy ;Hongkong since the second half of 1984 Hong Kong stocks appear rose .The United States from 1980 to 1982 W shaped recession caused by cigar a hand ,he used the high interest rates to combat inflation ,to 1982 the successful control of the inflation rate ,the economy boomed again .
Hongkong 1981 to 84 years the W shape due to the resumption of sovereignty to cause fear ,also because the sovereignty problem solving ,to 1984 July recovery .This decline is caused by the financial crisis ,with Japan in 1990 that is ,fear of London said Bloody L form economy ,namely economy is entered long-term low growth .
Bloody double-dip L is worse ,because of the financial crisis has changed the rules of the game ,make uncertain long-term .The new rule is you win I lose, again not long earned .But so far only a few people believe that the rules of the game have been changed .
Don golden age of wealth creation to was entered 2007 ending of the majority of people .The stock market has become from many fragments (fragment ) ;the future will win or lose by entering the market and when away from the city to decide ,not hold out for long .
Why am I old Cao repeatedly think this is bear market rebound two period rather than a bull market? One ,the whole financial system lack of liquidity ,the reason is to leverage ;two ,the enterprise only pattern thin profit ,so that enterprises lack of desire to invest ;three ,the global trade volume is the first quarter of this year declined not rising ,on behalf of the stock market is based on business is weak ,not from gambling rather than a reflection of economy in the mend .
Every rebound ,ultimately to cats and dogs share up to end ,this is no exception .Because most people still miss 2007 October before the good day ,this bear market is two period to rise power ;they don capitulation theory ( the bear a selling climax caused ) .
June 22nd afternoon from all over the world gold experts will be neat on gold .Today a bottle of Chateau D Yquem price already amounted to 120000 yuan ,and often out of stock ,but few are willing to give 500 yuan of be apt to listen to a good investment advice .
This is why so many people in the Royal Bank of Scotland on 89% or corrosion in Les TSB bank on Corrosion for 77% reasons .Investors when learning a good investment advice gold truth value !Investors another missed is often suffer from investment amnesia ,forget the mistakes of the past ,look only on today ,tomorrow or the day after the big city situation ,rather than a long-term perspective . |
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